August 25, 2026

Market Explorer: EU Expansion Forecast Tool | INNELS

Revenue forecast, break-even, compliance costs and a GO / DEFER / SKIP verdict for every EU marketplace — in one report. Built by INNELS on 9 years of EU launches.

Mark Daniel Zalomajev
Founder

Market Explorer: your EU expansion business case in one report

Market Explorer is a self-serve tool that produces a complete European expansion business case for a single brand. You describe your brand and products once, and you get four things back: a GO / DEFER / SKIP verdict for every EU marketplace you are considering, a 24-month revenue forecast with a break-even month, an SKU-level compliance audit with a cost and a timeline against each blocker, and a phased launch plan. We built it for the person inside a brand who sells well at home, has been asked to evaluate Europe, and needs to answer one question for their leadership: how much do we invest, and what do we get back. It is live now at marketexplorer.innels.com, and it is the first product we have released in nine years of running marketplaces in Europe.

Why we built it

For nine years we have done one thing: launched and run brands on Amazon, Allegro, Bol.com and TikTok Shop across Europe. In that time we have had hundreds of first calls with brands from the US, Canada and Europe, and almost all of them end at the same two numbers. How much do we need to invest. What turnover do we get back.

Those are the numbers a CFO signs off on. They are also the numbers our industry consistently refuses to produce.

The standard answer — ours included, for years — is that it depends and that it has to be tested. That is honest, and it is completely useless to an export manager who has been told to bring a case for Europe to the board by the end of the quarter.

So we stopped giving that answer. We started building the whole case by hand before the second call: marketplace by marketplace, revenue forecast, break-even month, real compliance costs, launch timeline. Each one took days of our team's time. We have now done that often enough, and calibrated it against enough real launches, that we could turn it into a product. That product is Market Explorer.

We built this tool because expansion decisions were being made at midnight on a spreadsheet. The biggest pain is not 'I want to sell on Amazon' — it is 'I have a hundred thousand to invest, where do I put it and what do I get back'. Nobody was answering that question with numbers."Mark Daniel Zalomajev, CEO and Founder

What is inside the report

You fill in one intake form describing your brand, your products, the markets you are considering and your goals. The report comes back in four sections, and every plan includes all four.

  • Marketplace comparison. A GO, DEFER or SKIP verdict for every marketplace on your list — Amazon DE, FR, IT, ES, UK, Allegro, Bol.com and others — with second-year revenue, break-even month, required investment and risk level laid out side by side, plus the sequence we would launch them in.
  • Break-even and revenue forecast. A 24-month projection in three scenarios — conservative, base, optimistic — with assumptions you can edit, plus a full cost breakdown covering advertising, marketplace fees and logistics.
  • Compliance and logistics audit. An SKU-level checklist of everything that blocks your launch: GPSR responsible person, EPR and packaging registrations, CE marking, REACH disclosure, label localisation. Each item carries a cost estimate and a timeline, mapped onto a critical path so you know what has to start first.
  • Content and launch timeline. Localisation scope, the creative assets you need to produce, and a phased 24-month plan — including where TikTok Shop fits, which for most brands is as a brand awareness layer that lifts Amazon performance rather than as another marketplace to rank on.

You can export the whole thing as a PDF and choose what goes into it, and you can invite your team — including finance — into the workspace so everyone reads the same numbers.

How honest is the forecast?

This is the part we care most about, so we will be direct.

Our forecast logic is anchored to real competitors in your category and cross-checked against more than 90 launches we have run in European markets. It is calibrated, not optimistic. One benchmark most brands get wrong: a single EU or UK market usually delivers 10 to 35 percent of your US revenue, not a one-to-one match. We say that in the report rather than hiding it, because a brand that expects parity and gets 20 percent will call the launch a failure when it is actually on track.

The tool is also built to say no. Verdicts run against hard thresholds tuned to the goals you set, and reports regularly come back DEFER or SKIP for individual marketplaces — Amazon France when the price segment is too small, Bol.com when the creative cost does not justify the return yet. A report that always says GO is not a report. It is a sales pitch with charts.

And there are no agency fees anywhere in the investment plan. We are an agency, so it is fair to ask. The answer is that you can take this report, hand it to your leadership, and run the entire expansion in-house without ever speaking to us. That is a completely acceptable outcome for us.

Who Market Explorer is for

Our primary user is not an Amazon specialist.

It is the export manager, expansion manager or marketing manager inside a brand that is already performing strongly in its home market — very often in the United States — and has been asked to evaluate Europe. That person usually does not know the European marketplace landscape at all, and their job is not to become an Amazon expert. Their job is to bring a defensible financial case to the people above them.

It also works for two other groups. Established Amazon sellers who know the mechanics inside out but have never modelled the European side, where compliance and VAT change the maths. And teams who have already decided to run the expansion in-house and simply need the analysis without a retainer attached to it.

Managers and directors come to us with the same problem again and again: they want to enter Europe, and they have no way to find out what it actually costs. There are research tools on the market, but you need several of them, you need to pay for all of them, and you need to know how to combine them. This puts the whole picture in one place."Andrejs Klimovskis, Co-founder

Why "expanding to Europe" is the wrong way to think about it

Europe is not one market. It is at least eight separate billion-euro marketplaces — Amazon DE, Allegro, Bol.com, Otto, Kaufland, Cdiscount and others — each with its own audience, fee structure, competitive density and regulatory requirements. Expanding to Europe is a question of choosing where, in what order, not simply of going.

Compliance carries the sharpest downside of any decision in that sequence. One missing document can suppress your listings across every EU marketplace at the same time, and the cost of that is measured in lost revenue, not in fines. That is why compliance is a full section of the report and not a footnote — and if you only want that piece, our EU Compliance Checker is free and takes two minutes.

What it costs and what happens next

Market Explorer is live at marketexplorer.innels.com. Plans are one-time payments with no subscription, and every plan includes all four report sections. Pro adds a free 30-minute consultation with Niks, our Head of Operations, plus team invites. Agencies and brands running multiple analyses can request an unlimited plan. Every plan carries a money-back guarantee.

This is a soft launch and we are treating it as one. The tool is not finished, the pricing is not final, and we are opening it now specifically to find out what is wrong with it while it is still cheap to fix. There is a full interactive sample report on the site if you want to see the output before you commit — and if something in your report is unclear, missing or simply wrong, tell us. That feedback is the reason we launched early.

Market Explorer is a paid self-serve tool by INNELS that produces a complete EU expansion business case for a brand. It returns a GO / DEFER / SKIP verdict for every European marketplace you are considering, a 24-month revenue forecast with break-even analysis, an SKU-level compliance and logistics audit with costs and timelines, and a phased content and launch plan. It is available at marketexplorer.innels.com.

Market Explorer is built for export managers, expansion managers and marketing managers at brands that sell well in their home market — usually the US — and need to evaluate European marketplace expansion. It is also used by established Amazon sellers who have never modelled the European side, and by teams planning to run the expansion in-house.

It answers the two questions that block most EU expansion decisions: how much do we need to invest, and what revenue will we get back. Agencies and consultants typically answer that it depends and has to be tested, which is not something a manager can present to a CFO. Market Explorer produces those numbers, with the assumptions behind them, in one report.

The forecast is calibrated rather than optimistic. It is anchored to real competitor performance in your product category and cross-checked against more than 90 launches INNELS has run in European markets. A single EU or UK market typically lands at 10 to 35 percent of a brand's US revenue, never one-to-one, and the report states this explicitly. It is a forecast, not a guarantee, and the methodology and its limitations are documented in the tool.

No. Verdicts are produced against hard thresholds tuned to the goals you define, and reports regularly return DEFER and SKIP for individual marketplaces. The investment plan contains zero agency fees, and the report is designed to be usable without ever hiring INNELS.

Those are research tools: they give you data, and you build the business case yourself. Market Explorer gives you the business case. To reach a comparable result manually you would need several paid subscriptions, the expertise to combine them, and separate research into EU compliance costs — and you would still have to model the forecast, break-even and launch timeline by hand.

Yes. Compliance and logistics is one of the four report sections. It produces an SKU-level checklist covering GPSR responsible person requirements, EPR and packaging registrations, CE marking, REACH disclosure and label localisation, with a cost estimate and timeline for each item mapped onto a critical path. A free two-minute version of this diagnostic is available separately as the INNELS EU Compliance Checker.

Market Explorer covers European marketplaces, including Amazon Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the UK, plus Allegro in Poland and Bol.com in the Netherlands, with TikTok Shop covered as a brand awareness channel. It is built for EU expansion and does not currently produce analyses for markets outside Europe.

Between 30 minutes and 3–4 hours after you submit the intake form, depending on how many products and markets you are analysing. You receive an email when it is ready and can watch progress in your account in the meantime.

Plans are one-time payments with no subscription, and all plans include all four report sections. The Pro plan adds a free 30-minute consultation with INNELS Head of Operations and team invites. An unlimited plan is available for agencies and brands running multiple analyses. Current pricing is listed at marketexplorer.innels.com.

Yes. You can export the report as a PDF and choose which sections to include, and on the Pro plan you can invite colleagues — including finance stakeholders — into the workspace so they can review the underlying numbers directly.

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Get in touch

We’d love to hear from you! Fill out the form below, and we’ll get back to you as soon as possible.
Or reach us directly
Mark Daniel Zalomajev
CEO, Strategic management on Amazon
markdaniel@innels.com
Andrejs Klimovskis
COO, Operational management on Amazon
andrey@innels.com
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